NBA MVP rankings: Can Embiid remain front-runner?
With the season reaching the halfway mark, the new eligibility rules for end-of-season awards are starting to impact Joel Embiid’s quest for a Most Valuable Player repeat. Despite still being a leading contender, other worthy candidates are bringing their best to challenge for the honor.
10. De’Aaron Fox, Kings
Previous ranking: 9
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 46.8 | 39.7 | 71.7 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 27.9 |
While Domantas Sabonis is an important part of Sacramento’s offensive attack, Fox is the face of the Kings. The 26-year-old is in the midst of a career campaign, averaging personal bests in points per game, 3-pointers per contest, and 3-point shooting percentage. His development as a marksman is worth noting as he’s making 3.3 threes per game, 1.5 more than his previous career high.
However, the Kings have lost four straight, with three of the defeats being by less than five points. Sacramento will need to regroup and finish with better playoff positioning to give Fox an increased chance to add some hardware to his collection.
9. Kevin Durant, Suns
Previous ranking: 8
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 53.2 | 47 | 88.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 29.2 |
Durant continues to be ridiculously effective midway through his 16th season. Though he’s only making 2.3 threes per contest – just above the mean for his career – his 47% clip from distance is a career high. That alone says plenty considering this is still 13-time All-Star, four-time scoring champ, 2014 MVP Kevin Durant.
In truth, you can’t really ask much more from the 35-year-old. Durant almost singlehandedly powered Phoenix amid the Suns’ injury concerns. But as Bradley Beal and Devin Booker begin to accrue more time on the court, Durant’s MVP case will likely wane some.
8. Kawhi Leonard, Clippers
Previous ranking: N/A
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 51.8 | 44.5 | 87.7 | 6 | 3.6 | 23.7 |
Leonard hasn’t found himself in contention for this award in quite some time after finishing as the MVP runner-up in 2015-16, third in 2016-17, and within the top five in 2019-2020. However, this is the healthiest the Clippers star has been in a long time as he’s only missed four games so far. The Claw has been dominant, getting his squad to fourth in the Western Conference after Los Angeles initially stumbled after the James Harden trade.
Leonard and co-star Paul George are both contributing equally to the team’s offensive attack, but Kawhi is shooting as well as he ever has from 3-point land (44.5%). His defense has also remained solid, averaging 2.4 stocks.
7. Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
Previous ranking: 6
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 46.7 | 37.9 | 83.8 | 5.4 | 5 | 25.9 |
At only 22, Edwards has a chance to capture the second MVP in Timberwolves franchise history 20 years after Kevin Garnett won the award in 2003-04. The former No. 1 overall pick has been the driving force to Minnesota’s 30-12 start as the Timberwolves sit on top of the Western Conference standings.
Edwards has become one of the NBA’s most efficient bucket-getters. The 6-foot-4 guard is averaging career highs in points, 3-point percentage, field-goal percentage, free-throw attempts, and free-throw percentage. Edwards has also made huge strides as a playmaker. His five assists per game and 23.3% assist rate are both career bests.
6. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Previous ranking: 7
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 46.7 | 36.3 | 80.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 26.7 |
There’s always a strong argument that the MVP award should be given to the best player on the best team. If that’s the case, then Jayson Tatum is the clear favorite. The 33-10 Celtics have been dominating teams this season, racking up a +7 point differential per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
TD Garden has been a fortress for the Celtics, whose lone loss at home came against the Nuggets last week. Tatum has appeared in all but one home game, averaging 27.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists at The Garden. The league record for the best home mark is 40-1, which is shared by the 1985-86 Celtics and the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs. If Boston can tie that record, it’ll be difficult to keep the award out of Tatum’s hands.
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Previous ranking: 5
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 60.9 | 23.2 | 66.9 | 11.4 | 6 | 31.2 |
Sixth in the league in rebounding and third in scoring, Antetokounmpo is flourishing thanks to his partnership with Damian Lillard shifting into high gear over the last month and change. With Lillard needing constant attention beyond the arc, 90.9% of the Greek Freak’s attempts have come inside the 3-point line. Consequently, he boasts the best overall field-goal percentage (60.9%) among the league’s top 50 scorers.
The drawback is that the better Lillard performs, the louder the case against Antetokounmpo becomes. However, Antetokounmpo is sufficiently talented in his own right, so he should still receive strong consideration if the Bucks continue to challenge the Boston Celtics for the East’s top spot.
4. Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Previous ranking: 6
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 48.5 | 37.6 | 77.8 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 33.6 |
Despite missing five games since Christmas, Doncic remains one of the NBA’s most dependable and outstanding sources of offense. The Mavericks are in the top 10 in offensive rating and points per contest in large part due to Doncic, who ranks second in the NBA in points per game and third in assists per contest. Doncic also ranks third in triple-doubles, behind Sabonis and Jokic.
The Mavericks have been consistently solid in the thick of the Western Conference, ranking sixth. However, the Nos. 5 and 8 seeds are only separated by a single game. Picking up wins against the Kings and Suns this week would help Dallas move beyond the competition and solidify Doncic’s MVP case.
3. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Previous ranking: 3
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 58.7 | 35 | 82.3 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 26.1 |
Jokic is still very much in the thick of the MVP race despite coming in at No. 3, which is really a credit to the two stars ahead of him. The Nuggets center is the only player in in the entire league to currently rank within the top five in assists and rebounding, all while leading a 30-14 Denver side in scoring.
The strongest argument for a third MVP trophy for the Serbian will likely come down to how voters interpret the definition of “most valuable” because the Nuggets are an entirely different beast when he’s on the floor. Some of that’s due to a rotation that’s noticeably thinner than last season. But the fact of the matter is there’s no more sizeable drop-off for Denver than when Jokic sits, as he has an on-off net rating of 19.6.
The Nuggets are virtually unchanged defensively with or without him, but it’s his offensive influence that has again placed him among the game’s elite. Denver’s 123.6 offensive rating with Jokic is a higher mark than any other team’s, outdoing the frenetic Indiana Pacers’ 121.2 points per 100 possessions.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Previous ranking: 2
2023-24 season averages
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 54.9 | 32.6 | 89.3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 31.1 |
Gilgeous-Alexander remains in the second spot in our rankings. However, the 25-year-old is routinely stuffing the stat sheet for the 29-13 Thunder, who sit second in the Western Conference. Gilgeous-Alexander is fourth in scoring (31.1), third in free-throw attempts (8.9), and 22nd in assists (6.3).
Yet it’s Gilgeous-Alexander’s defense that makes him one of the NBA’s most impressive talents. The 6-foot-6 guard is a difference-maker on that end of the floor, using his length to cause havoc on the perimeter. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in steals (2.2) and deflections (3.6) per game. The former Rookie of the Year is also adept at challenging shooters, tying Coby White for the NBA lead with 3.7 3-point contests per game. Gilgeous-Alexander seems like a lock for the All-Defensive Team.
1. Joel Embiid, 76ers
2023-24 season averages
Previous ranking: 1
| GP | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 53.6 | 36 | 88.6 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 35 |
It’s simple. If Embiid qualifies for enough games, he should win the MVP. The Sixers star and reigning award winner is leading the league in scoring as teams have no answer for his dominance in the paint. Embiid’s 41-point, 10-assist outing against rival center Jokic served as a reminder of what he can do against prime competition. Philadelphia has also struggled with Embiid out of the lineup, going 3-4 since Christmas with an average margin of loss of nine points.
However, the NBA’s new requirements for awards are starting to become a factor in his candidacy. After missing 10 games in the first half of the season, he can only miss seven more for the remainder of the campaign in order to qualify for end-of-season honors. While the Sixers star wants to focus on his health instead of becoming a repeat MVP, winning another one seems like a sure bet – health permitting.
