What each Euro 2024 team needs to reach the knockout rounds
There’s still plenty on the line as Euro 2024 enters its final round of group-stage matches.
Only Spain and Portugal are assured of finishing top of their quartets, while Poland is the only side officially eliminated from the tournament. That leaves 21 teams who have yet to determine their fate; host Germany is through to the next round, but its final position in Group A is still undetermined.
The group-stage finales run Sunday through Wednesday. Before we delve into the permutations for each group, we’ll detail the crucial and occasionally cruel tiebreakers for teams that finish level on points.
Tiebreakers
The tiebreakers are easier to handle because there’s no possible scenario where three out of four teams are level on points once their group is done, so we can cut that arduous fourth step.
That leaves the tie-breaking criteria as:
- Head-to-head points
- Head-to-head goal difference
- Head-to-head goals scored
The tricky three-team tiebreaker rules- Goal difference in group
- Total goals scored
- Penalty shootout (if the two teams level on points are playing each other during the group finale)
- Fewest disciplinary points (a yellow card is one point, three points for a direct red or two yellows, four points for a yellow followed by a direct red)
- Overall ranking from European qualifiers
Group A
| # | Nation | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Switzerland | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Scotland | -4 | 1 |
| 4 | Hungary | -4 | 0 |
Final day: June 23 at 3:00 p.m. ET
- Switzerland vs. Germany
- Scotland vs. Hungary
Germany is already through to the round of 16. It’ll advance in first place with a win or draw, but the host nation will surrender top spot to Switzerland if it loses. For Scotland to pinch second place, Steve Clarke’s men need to win while Switzerland loses, and there needs to be a seven-goal swing (Scotland winning 3-0 and Switzerland losing 4-0, for example) for the Scots to secure a superior goal difference to the Swiss. A draw isn’t enough for Scotland. Hungary is pretty much dead and buried – even a win is unlikely to be enough because it also needs to improve its miserable goal difference to have any chance of qualifying as one of the four best third-placed finishers.
Group B
| # | Nation | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Albania | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Croatia | -3 | 1 |
Final day: June 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET
- Albania vs. Spain
- Croatia vs. Italy
First place already belongs to Spain. A draw isn’t enough for Albania or Croatia to emerge from Group B, but both should be confident that four points from three matches will send them through from second or third place. If Albania and Croatia win, the latter must win handsomely to overcome the former’s goal-difference advantage. Italy is through with a win or draw. But defeat leaves the Euro 2020 winner with a nervy wait to find out if it’s among the best third-placed finishers or, if Albania wins, gets the ignominy of being rooted to the bottom of the quartet.
Group C
| # | Nation | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | +1 | 4 |
| 2 | Denmark | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Serbia | -1 | 1 |
Final day: June 25 at 3:00 p.m. ET
- Denmark vs. Serbia
- England vs. Slovenia
With four points already to its name, England is practically through even if it drops to third place. England finishes atop Group C with a win. Denmark and Slovenia take the top two spots with wins; if their goal difference remains level, it’s up to disciplinary points (currently level) and then qualification ranking (advantage to Denmark) to determine their order. The same tiebreakers determine second place if Denmark and Slovenia both draw. Serbia must win to book its passage to the knockout rounds in either second spot or (unless results in other groups go wildly against Dragan Stojkovic’s side) as one of the best third-placed finishers.
Group D
| # | Nation | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | +1 | 4 |
| 2 | France | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Austria | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Poland | -3 | 0 |
Final day: June 25 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- France vs. Poland
- Netherlands vs. Austria
The Netherlands has a slight advantage in the race for first because it’s scored one more goal (goals scored is the tiebreaker that follows goal difference) than France. If both teams draw but France scores one more goal (France 2-2 Poland and Netherlands 1-1 Austria, for example), it goes down to disciplinary points (currently level) and then qualification ranking (advantage to France). Austria is trying to gate-crash the party in first and second and is guaranteed one of those places with a win. An Austria draw should also be enough for it to be a best third-placed team. Poland was the first nation to be eliminated from Euro 2024.
Group E
| # | Nation | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Romania | +1 | 3 |
| 2 | Belgium | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Slovakia | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Ukraine | -2 | 3 |
Final day: June 26 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Slovakia vs. Romania
- Ukraine vs. Belgium
It’s the first time in the history of the Euros that four teams are on equal points after two matches apiece. Each team can qualify with a win. Belgium gets first if it wins and Slovakia doesn’t, Slovakia gets first if it wins and Ukraine doesn’t, Ukraine gets first if it wins and Romania doesn’t, and Romania gets first if it wins and Belgium doesn’t. If both matches are drawn, Romania would finish first unless Belgium scored more goals in its draw with Ukraine (Slovakia 1-1 Romania and Ukraine 2-2 Belgium, for example), Slovakia would have a strong chance of entering the last 16 as a best third-placed finisher, and Ukraine would sign off bottom of Group E. Nice and easy, then.
Group F
| # | Nation | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Turkey | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Czechia | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Georgia | -2 | 1 |
Final day: June 26 at 3:00 p.m. ET
- Georgia vs. Portugal
- Czechia vs. Turkey
Portugal beat Turkey on Saturday, meaning it wins the head-to-head record between the top two and, therefore, has first place sewn up. Turkey finishes second with a win or draw, but a loss sends it into the best third-placed teams lottery or condemns it to the bottom of Group F. Czechia and Georgia will expect to advance in second place or as one of the best third-placed finishers with a win. Goal difference currently favors Czechia in a tiebreaker with Georgia.
