Why Siakam is perfect piece at perfect time for Pacers

There’s a reason the Indiana Pacers had been rumored to be in the mix for Pascal Siakam from the moment the Toronto Raptors made it known they were open to trading him. Siakam, a two-time All-NBA playmaking forward still squarely in his prime, is a cleaner fit with Indiana than with any other team in the league, including Toronto.

Playing next to Tyrese Haliburton in a breakneck-paced system with maximal spacing should coax even more efficiency out of a guy who shot 58% from 2-point range while operating inside a phone booth with the Raptors. And that’s to say nothing of how Siakam might help the Pacers at the defensive end. For them to acquire him without surrendering a prized prospect, with Bruce Brown being the only rotation player going the other way, and while sending just two of their own first-round picks – one of which will likely land in the late teens or early 20s in this year’s maligned draft – is a home-run deal for a team that has already started to look fairly serious.

The Pacers are 23-17, right in the thick of a five-team pileup occupying the 4-8 seeds and vying for the last three guaranteed playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Once Haliburton returns from the hamstring strain sidelining him, they’ll be well-positioned for a second-half push to secure a top-six seed. They currently own the most efficient offense in the NBA, as they have for basically this entire season. They also rank bottom five in defensive efficiency, as they have for basically the entire season. All the while, they’ve been operating with a power-forward-sized hole in their starting lineup.

The Pacers tried going big with Jalen Smith in that spot. They tried going small by sliding Aaron Nesmith up to the four. They tried splitting the difference with Obi Toppin. None of those options did much to mitigate their most glaring weaknesses: their poor defensive rebounding, their lack of secondary rim protection behind Myles Turner, their ridiculous foul rate, and their inability to defend big wings. Siakam alone isn’t a solution to those issues, but he’s one of a small handful of players in the league who can at least help with all of them while also providing a meaningful boost at the offensive end.

The rub is that Siakam will be an unrestricted free agent in five months, but with his Bird rights in hand, Indiana will have a huge leg up on the competition when it comes to securing his services long term. Early indications are that he landed exactly where he wanted and is open to working out a deal. (With five years and over $250 million potentially on the table, who wouldn’t be?) The risk, to the extent that this even qualifies as one, feels justifiable for the Pacers. Brown was a solid contributor whose point-of-attack defense and downhill juice will be missed, but Siakam will give them so much more of what they need. And he’ll do so without compromising their depth in the slightest.

Let’s start with the offense. You’d think a team with the highest offensive rating in league history wouldn’t need any help in that department. But while Indiana is stocked with exceptional play finishers, it’s pretty light on secondary creation next to Haliburton. That issue can show up when opposing teams scheme to get the ball out of Haliburton’s hands early, as the Lakers did in the In-Season Tournament final. It also contributes to the Pacers’ offense dipping by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions (from a historic 125.3 to a pedestrian 114.5) when Haliburton hits the bench.

Siakam’s plenty capable of initiating possessions when Haliburton is being face-guarded or is off the court entirely, and he can excel as a second-side operator attacking tilted defenses and extending advantages Haliburton creates. Inverted pick-and-pops with guard screeners (or ghosters) have also long been some of the most fruitful actions for Siakam because he decimates smalls on switches and has the passing chops to beat two-on-the-ball coverages. The Pacers probably use guard screens and ghost actions more than any team this side of Oklahoma City, and Buddy Hield will be the best movement shooter Siakam’s ever played with. That two-man game has a chance to be lethal.

Siakam can be a bit ponderous in the half court, and his post-centric, mid-range-heavy shot diet doesn’t entirely jive with Indiana’s quick-hitting, rim-and-threes approach. But, for one thing, the ability to attack mismatches and manufacture buckets from the middle of the floor becomes paramount in the playoffs. And for another thing, being surrounded by this much shooting – including a stretch big in Turner – should make getting to the rim much less of a chore for Siakam. Oftentimes, the paint is going to be solely his domain. Maybe the Pacers can even tap into his utility as a ball-screener in a way the Raptors couldn’t.

Even if there are some kinks to iron out against set defenses, Siakam and Haliburton will absolutely flambé teams in the open floor. Siakam is one of the best transition finishers in basketball, and he’s about to team up with the most prolific hit-ahead passer in the NBA. The Raptors and Pacers rank second and fourth, respectively, in points added via transition play this season, per Cleaning the Glass. And while the Raptors lead the league in transition frequency, the Pacers play a lot faster on the whole because they’re much more aggressive at pushing off of makes. In other words, the guy who ranks 11th in the league in transition scoring is looking at getting even more early-offense opportunities than he’s been getting.

So, that’s the offensive end of things. How Siakam changes the defensive equation is arguably more important. As mentioned, Indiana has some glaring limitations on that side of the ball that Siakam should theoretically help with, though given some of the ways his defense has regressed in recent years, it’s hard to deduce how much of that theory will translate into practice.

One limitation is that the Pacers haven’t had a good individual option to throw at opposing playmaking forwards. They’ve resorted to using the flat-footed Toppin, the 6-foot-5 Nesmith, or the 6-foot-4 Brown (who are strong one-on-one defenders but overextended in a lot of those matchups). Sometimes Indiana uses even wackier options like Hield or Bennedict Mathurin. Because the Pacers face so many mismatches and are averse to double-teaming, they defend more isolations than any team in the league and allow more points per possession on those isos than all but two clubs, per NBA Advanced Stats.

Siakam isn’t as laterally explosive as he used to be, but he still moves better than Indiana’s other power-forward-sized players. And at a wiry 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, he offers a lot more size and length than the nominal wings on the roster. It may not be a perfect solution, but it’s better than the ones they previously had.

The Pacers are also surely hoping Siakam can bolster their interior defense, which has allowed more points at the rim than every team but the Wizards this season. While part of that is by design – their scheme is designed to minimize rotations and guard the 3-point line first and foremost – the Pacers can definitely benefit from having another active big body helping in the paint. Siakam was once a ferocious back-line rotator, capable of apparating into the lane and stopping the ball multiple times on the same possession. Whether because of increased offensive workload, decreased motivation, age-related decline, or some combination of the three, he hasn’t been that same guy over the last couple of years. But if the change of scenery helps him get back to something resembling his 2018-21 level as a rim deterrent, it’ll make a world of difference for Indiana.

This team’s had issues with late or nonexistent low-man help all season. The Pacers’ lack of functional size outside of Turner has forced them to be pretty dogmatic about keeping him around the basket. They’ve dropped him back and been reluctant to engage a third defender in pick-and-rolls. Perhaps a locked-in Siakam can allow them to mix up their coverages more and have a better chance of surviving when someone other than Turner is the last line of defense.

Ideally, Siakam can also help end possessions after Turner leaps to contest the myriad shots Indiana’s defense funnels his way because this is a bottom-five defensive rebounding team as well. That’s partly because of how many rim shots the Pacers allow, partly because rebounding has never been Turner’s strong suit as a center, and partly because of who the club has rolled out at the four (Toppin is a particularly poor defensive rebounder for his size). Siakam isn’t an elite box-out guy, but he’s solid enough considering his length enables him to come up with contested boards. In each of the last three seasons, he’s had at least an 88th-percentile impact on the Raptors’ defensive rebound rate, per Cleaning the Glass.

In short, Siakam fills a ton of needs for the Pacers while taking almost nothing off the table, and he should make them a much more viable playoff team. Some may quibble with the incongruous timeline fit or worry about the way a max contract might age, but Siakam’s still yet to turn 30 (he’s two years older than Turner and six years older than Haliburton) and ought to have a few near-prime years left to give.

With Haliburton exploding into full-fledged superstardom and changing what feels possible for this team, acquiring a snug-fitting All-Star-level talent to complement him when you have the chance feels like an obvious thing to do. Especially when you can do so while keeping your most important off-ball weapon (Hield), your best 3-and-D wing (Nesmith), and a whole crop of promising young players (Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Isaiah Jackson, Jarace Walker) to fill out the roster now and in the future.

The Pacers have been one of the most entertaining teams in the league all season. Now they have a chance to make some real noise.