Should the Thunder try to accelerate their meteoric rise?

The topic on everyone’s mind in the NBA right now is, of course, breakfast. Specifically, whether the Oklahoma City Thunder have finished theirs, in the eyes of general manager Sam Presti.

When Presti was asked before the season about the possibility of augmenting his burgeoning core, he demurred, insisting that the Thunder’s day was too young for him to map out his plans. Better to eat that all-important first meal of the day than try to think on an empty stomach.

It’s still early – dawn has barely broken on this new competitive cycle in Oklahoma City – but the Thunder are third in the West at 23-11 even after two of their worst losses of the season, with the conference’s best net rating and an unassailable win profile. They’re one of just three teams (the others being the Celtics and 76ers) to rank in the top six on both sides of the ball.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate MVP candidate and would probably be the runaway favorite if not for a certain big-man duopoly gatekeeping that honor. Chet Holmgren has arrived as a ready-made star big man who fits perfectly next to Gilgeous-Alexander at both ends of the court. Jalen Williams has leveled up as a sophomore, looking like the platonic ideal of a secondary wing creator. The deep and versatile supporting cast can defend, drill threes, put the ball on the deck, and make connective passes.

For the second straight season, the Thunder lead the league by a mile in drives, but now they’re also tops in 3-point percentage. They have seven regular rotation players with true-shooting marks above 60%. They’re shooting 50/40/85 as a team. At the other end, they force turnovers at the league’s highest rate and hold opponents to the lowest field-goal percentage at the rim of any team. By any objective measure, this is a title threat as presently constructed.

A decision-maker could reasonably react to this reality a few different ways. One would be to avoid messing with what’s working, keep the thing rolling without disruption, and see how far it can go. Another would be to sense an opportunity and slam the accelerator. Yet another would be to find a happy medium, seeking modest upgrades to the efficiency of the vehicle that might pay big dividends down the road.

The special and unique thing about the Thunder’s position is that there are no bad choices. Because of the youth of the roster and the sustainability of the core, they can afford to be patient. At the same time, because of their expansive collection of prospects and future first-round picks, they have myriad avenues to improve the roster right now without making much of a dent in their long-term outlook. And they could address some clear weaknesses if they go that route.

So let’s look at what’s powering the Thunder’s success, and whether they can (or should) do anything to expedite their ascent.

For starters, there is simply no defensive answer for Gilgeous-Alexander because there is not a soul in the league who can prevent him from getting to his spots. The best defenders can “mirror” offensive players’ movements, but you can’t mirror someone who moves as uniquely as Gilgeous-Alexander does – who changes direction and speed so unpredictably. He goes from 60 to zero as quickly as he goes zero to 60, and his scoring bag exists in hammerspace, unconstrained by dimension.

Defenders fly by because of his stop-on-a-dime pull-up middies; he puts their feet in cement with bamboozling hesitation dribbles, leaves them grasping at air with loping Eurosteps, and short-circuits their internal clocks with syncopated strides and wrong-foot floaters. He works smaller defenders in the post and is as likely to dust someone with an explosive straight-line drive as he is to drag them on a serpentine voyage to the rim. When he gets to the cup, he evades having his shot contested with one-handed gathers that flow into unblockable, full-extension finishes. And he can execute all of that with either hand, so shading him to one side accomplishes nothing.

Even without a reliable 3-point shot (he’s at 34% on low volume), he’s averaging 31.4 points on a true-shooting mark that’s 6.3 percentage points better than league average because he shoots 71% at the rim, 51% on 2-pointers outside the restricted area, and 90% on more than eight free-throw attempts per game. He’s doing all that with a minuscule 7.2% turnover rate that would tie him with Michael Jordan (1996-97) and LaMarcus Aldridge (2014-15) for the lowest ever from a player with a usage rate above 30%.

Oh yeah, he’s also leading the league in steals and performing like a borderline All-Defensive candidate. It took a while for the reality to catch up to the promise of Gilgeous-Alexander as a defender, but he’s fully figured out how to weaponize his length, constantly scaling pressure up and down to keep opposing ball-handlers on their toes. He’ll concede a cushion to keep the ball in front, only to explode into the gap and get a finger on a jump shot when he sees his man leave his feet. He can still struggle a bit with his footwork as an on-ball defender, and some teams will target him on switches (as the Celtics did Tuesday night), but his help instincts have improved dramatically over the last couple of years.

In a post-Warriors-dynasty NBA ruled by parity, we’ve seen champions of all stripes. The only apparent prerequisite for winning titles in this era is having a top-five player. OKC seems to have that part covered, even if it otherwise looks like an unconventional contender. Outside of Joel Embiid, Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best two-way player in basketball this season.

Then there’s Holmgren, already one of the league’s most imposing rim-protectors despite his twiggy build. He’s equally capable of eliminating shots as a primary-action defender and blowing those actions up from the weak side. Because he weighs less than a lot of point guards, some hulking centers can bully him on the block and on the boards, and that’s part of the reason rebounding is such a big issue for this team. (More on that in a minute.) Strong drivers can go into his chest and knock him back. But a 7-foot-6 wingspan coupled with elite body control can make up for a lot. It means he can take a bump from a freight train like Anthony Edwards and still block his shot:

If an individual matchup is particularly problematic, OKC will uncork the bulkier Jaylin Williams and slide Holmgren into a predatory weak-side roving role. Only Embiid (10.8) is contesting more shots per game at the rim than Holmgren (10.0), and only six players who challenge at least five such shots per game are holding opponents to a lower at-rim field-goal percentage than Holmgren’s 51.6%.

He’s also far more than just a rim-protector; he’s a multi-coverage weapon who can bring that huge wingspan to bear on the perimeter. Part of the reason the Celtics kept looking to attack Gilgeous-Alexander when the Thunder freely switched on Tuesday is that Holmgren locked down everything on the front end of those switches. Neither Jayson Tatum nor Jaylen Brown could do anything against him. Here he is stifling both of them on the same possession, bottling up Brown’s drive before rotating over to hold up Tatum at the rim:

At the offensive end, OKC benefits from the sheer number of ways Holmgren can be used: in pick-and-pops, hard rolls, short rolls to pass, short rolls to shoot, face ups, and spot ups; or as a closeout driver, a hub playmaker, a pick-and-roll ball-handler, a trailer in transition, and handler in transition. He doesn’t really post up, but in every other way you can conceive of deploying a big man offensively, he’s operating at a high level despite being a rookie. He’s shooting 62% from 2-point range and 40% from deep.

Jalen Williams, a freaky combo guard/power forward hybrid averaging 18-4-4 on 53/44/83 shooting with plus defense in his second season, rounds out the core. This highlight reel cut from five-ish minutes of Wednesday’s fourth quarter against the Hawks should give you a pretty good idea of how Williams impacts the game with his driving, passing, shooting, and defensive instincts:

Williams, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Holmgren are the untouchables, and any moves OKC makes should be in service of maximizing that three-man nucleus now and in the future.

Josh Giddey once seemed like he’d be part of that core, but his long-term fit started to feel tenuous even before the league and police in California started investigating allegations that he had an improper relationship with a minor. He’s a genius passer and a strong driver, but his shooting limitations can muck things up for the Thunder’s offense when he’s off-ball, especially when teams cross-match their centers onto him and dare him to shoot while forcing Holmgren to go to work against a big wing.

On top of that, Giddey’s a poor off-ball defender who often feels like the weak link in the help-the-helper chain, with late rotations, botched X-outs, and missed box-outs. The Thunder have performed almost 10 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor. If they’re aiming to make a significant upgrade, his spot in the starting lineup feels like an obvious place to do so.

Their other obvious area of need is on the glass. The Thunder rank 29th in both offensive and defensive rebound rate, ahead of only the eminently unserious Wizards. Holmgren’s lack of heft is part of the issue, but it’s just as much on the team’s guards and wings, who don’t do enough to clean things up behind Holmgren when he leaps out to contest shots. Giddey and Jalen Williams are particularly bad offenders:

The Thunder have good positional size in the backcourt, but they’re generally on the smaller side as a team. That can also manifest as a lack of secondary rim protection when Holmgren gets dragged out to the perimeter, or when he’s on the bench. To account for that, they protect the paint by committee, with aggressive digs, back-line pre-rotations, and plenty of strong-side help. As a result, they give up the league’s highest rate of corner threes.

They could smooth some of that stuff out by bringing in another big body – preferably a more reliable option than Jaylin Williams (a slick passer who otherwise lacks any kind of offensive pop). A small upgrade could look like Andre Drummond, or on the younger front, maybe someone like Day’Ron Sharpe. Thinking a bit bigger, they could go after Clint Capela. Or, for someone with less long-term money attached, Jonas Valanciunas or Kelly Olynyk.

Presti seems disinclined to make a huge swing this season, but if there’s one target who might be able to change his mind, it’s Lauri Markkanen. Utah’s 7-footer could help shore up the Thunder’s rebounding while improving spacing and making their offense even more dangerous. He’s one of the best play-finishers in the world, and he would make the team’s red-hot shooting feel a lot more sustainable and less susceptible to postseason regression.

The Thunder would have to change very little to accommodate him. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to thrive, and he’d slot seamlessly into their rapid-fire ghost actions. He’s also a pretty adept self-creator who could help carry the offense during the non-SGA minutes. (As good as Jalen Williams is, the Thunder score 13.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the bench.) Markkanen is 26 and under contract on a bargain deal for another season after this one. The Jazz will rightly demand a ridiculous bounty of draft capital in return, but OKC owns 15 first-round picks in the next seven drafts. If any team can justify paying the freight, it’s the Thunder.

They’ll be protective of their depth pieces, for good reason. Lu Dort’s wing defense is invaluable, as is Isaiah Joe’s movement shooting. (Joe is an integral cog in the Thunder’s guard-screening machine, and the ghost pick-and-pop action he runs with Gilgeous-Alexander is particularly hard to stop. The Thunder have outscored teams by 19.8 points per 100 in 517 minutes with the two of them on the floor.) Cason Wallace makes his share of rookie mistakes, but he’s teeming with upside as a stout defender who can shoot and make snappy reads off the bounce. Kenrich Williams, the grandfather of this team at the ripe old age of 29, is a savvy connector and small-ball center who always seems to win his minutes.

But whether they aim high or low, the Thunder’s pick stash is such that they should be able to retain their most valued role players in almost any deal. They have Davis Bertans’ contract (partially guaranteed next season) to use as ballast, along with the rookie-scale deals of guys like Ousmane Dieng and Tre Mann, who are currently collecting dust. Plus Giddey, whatever he’s worth right now.

There’s nothing wrong with preaching patience and letting a promising young team grow together, but Presti should know as well as anyone that championship windows are fickle things. Nothing is promised. Every title shot is precious. The Thunder’s window is officially open, and a breeze is drifting into their breakfast nook. Is Presti ready to start planning their lunch?