Trust in Haliburton: The Pacers are scoring at unprecedented levels
As the NBA’s scoring explosion continues into another year, it’s not a cluster of stars in Phoenix, Milwaukee, Boston, or Los Angeles setting the pace. Nor is it Nikola Jokic’s defending champion Nuggets, Steph Curry’s Warriors, or a reigning MVP and an ascendant star in Philadelphia. No, the Association’s most prolific team through three weeks of the campaign is the Indiana Pacers, a club featuring most of the same rotation that finished 21st in offensive efficiency last season.
But referring to the 2023-24 Pacers as merely the league’s most efficient offense is a massive understatement and a great disservice to what has thus far been the NBA’s most entertaining team.
Indiana has scored 122.0 points per 100 possessions while playing at the second-fastest pace, leading to some lopsided box scores. Through 11 games, the Pacers have already topped 120 points nine times, exceeded 130 on four occasions, cracked 140 twice, and even hung 152 on the defenseless Spurs. In a two-game set against a 76ers club that entered the first of those contests with a top-five defense, Indiana averaged 129 points.
The Pacers don’t just own the most efficient offense of the nascent season, but rather of all time.
Lest any skeptics chalk that up to a small sample size, it’s worth noting that this is also the most efficient any team has ever been through the first 11 games of a season, according to Stathead. Sure, it’s also true that the 3-point and analytics revolutions have led to an efficiency boom that makes it tough to compare offenses of today to those of yesteryear. But even when taking into account how offenses perform relative to the league average, few teams in history come close to what the 2023-24 Pacers have accomplished thus far.
Indiana has scored 8.9 more points per 100 possessions than the average offense, according to Basketball Reference. To put that figure in perspective, only three teams in history have even managed to be eight points better than average in a given season. The most recent of those three teams was the 73-win Warriors. The other two were Steve Nash-led offenses in Dallas and Phoenix (in back-to-back campaigns).
That tracks, since Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton might be the closest thing to Nash in the modern game. Haliburton has proven more willing to let it fly than Nash ever was (though even he could stand to shoot more), but his combination of marksmanship, playmaking, pace, and pick-and-roll savvy is positively Nash-ian.
The 23-year-old is averaging 24.7 points and a league-leading 12.5 assists while shooting 61.2% inside the arc, 43.6% from deep, and 93.2% from the free-throw line. The only other players to average at least 24 and 12 over their first 10 games of a season were James Harden in 2016 and Oscar Robertson in 1961. No player had ever totaled at least 32 assists without a turnover over a two-game span until Haliburton did it against the Sixers this week.
There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the level of offensive mastery Haliburton has achieved in only his fourth season. Pacers fans will remind you that while this historic level of team production is stunning, Indiana boasting an elite offense in general shouldn’t be. The Pacers got off to a flying start last year, too, and scored like a top-five offense when Haliburton was on the court. The issue was that the 2023 All-Star missed 26 games, with Indiana going 7-19 in those contests and performing like the 29th-ranked offense in Hali-less minutes.
Just as Nash did for teams two decades ago, Haliburton has offensively optimized his squad in a way few other point guards in history would be capable of.
In saying that, it takes a village to raise a historic offense, and Indiana’s lone All-Star is not the only one deserving of praise.
Though Haliburton stirs the drink, the ingredients are also perfectly suited for his tastes. Buddy Hield, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner provide plenty of shooting and spacing, with Turner also serving as a formidable pick-and-roll partner. Even fourth-year big man Jalen Smith is hot from deep. Bennedict Mathurin provides additional shot-creation (though the Canadian sophomore’s ability to draw fouls has regressed), while Obi Toppin has proven a perfect fit alongside a lead guard who’s committed to pushing the ball in transition. Add in the do-it-all, connective energy of newcomer Bruce Brown, and Indiana has a variety of aesthetically pleasing ways to slice and dice opponents.
The Pacers have resorted to isolation play on less than 6% of their possessions. They’re the league’s third-ranked team in transition frequency, and they refuse to be slowed by their own porous defense. According to Inpredictable, no team is faster after opponents’ makes. Meanwhile, backups Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell have Indiana playing even faster when Haliburton sits.
“The great pace they play with puts pressure on the defense,” Bucks head coach Adrian Griffin told theScore less than a week after Indiana hung 126 points on Milwaukee to overcome a 54-point effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Griffin, whose Bucks entered the season as Eastern Conference co-favorites with Boston, noted that he saw “two heavyweights” when watching the Pacers and Sixers clash, and that Indiana’s quick start shouldn’t surprise anyone. “They’ve got a terrific coach. (Rick) Carlisle’s been around forever.”
Taking nothing away from Carlisle’s wizardry, Indiana’s offensive approach is as simple as it is devastating. They run like hell, don’t turn the ball over, run spread pick-and-roll with shooters around Haliburton and Turner, and let it fly on the catch.
The Pacers may not shoot 39% from deep for much longer, and they’re even less likely to finish the season as the greatest offense ever. But as long as a healthy Haliburton is leading the way in this Carlisle-designed system, Indiana figures to remain elite on the offensive end. Though the team’s overall talent level belies its potential, the process and the eye test largely match the scintillating results. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Pacers’ location-effective field-goal percentage (which is essentially a measure of a team’s shot profile) is tops in the league.
Opposing defenses can’t crack this code by merely slowing the Pacers down, either. Though the team aims to run the ball down opponents’ throats at every opportunity, Indiana also boasts the most efficient half-court offense in Cleaning The Glass’ 21-year database.
Maintaining a top-tier offense is essential to the Pacers’ playoff chances, as there’s little hope on the other end. Only the lowly Spurs and Hornets have bled points at a more alarming rate than the 28th-ranked Indiana defense. Turner’s rim protection can only make up for so much with shoddy perimeter defense in front of him, a lack of size, and no true wing-stopper – though Mathurin has had his moments recently. (Look for the Pacers to be one of many teams tied to pending free agent and Indiana University alum O.G. Anunoby.)
The last team to miss the playoffs with a top-five offense was the 2016-17 Nuggets, a 40-win squad that finished fourth on the offensive end but 29th defensively. That should encourage Pacers fans who like their chances of maintaining a top-five attack, but it could also fuel pessimists who feel this upstart team will be doomed by its defensive shortcomings.
Then again, with the ball – and the franchise – in the newly extended Haliburton’s hands, there’s little room for anything except overwhelming optimism and confidence right now.
During a halftime interview on the Pacers’ broadcast Tuesday night in Philly, it was brought to Toppin’s attention that with Turner in foul trouble and Smith out, the undersized forward may be matched up with Joel Embiid in the second half. As if the daunting prospect of guarding the mammoth center went in one ear and out the other, Toppin retorted without skipping a beat: “We gon’ be good. We got Tyrese, we got everyone else on the bench, we good.” The Pacers then went on to snap Philly’s eight-game win streak, with Haliburton amassing 33 points and 15 assists.
Toppin may have been answering a question regarding frontcourt depth in one specific matchup 11 games into the season, but his reply could just as easily serve as the Pacers’ answer to any question or concern that comes their way from here on out.
We got Tyrese. We good.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore’s senior content producer.
