9 things to watch in college basketball's opening month
Following an offseason of unprecedented movement thanks to the transfer portal and NIL deals, the college basketball season is upon us once again.
Despite changes galore, many of the nation’s top players and teams remain. Those key fixtures lead the way on our list of nine things to watch in college hoops’ first month.
Kentucky’s loaded freshman class
Kentucky head coach John Calipari took a page out of his old playbook, putting together a freshman-heavy roster stocked with five-star recruits. It’s an interesting move; experience has fueled college basketball’s most recent champions. But if there’s one person who can buck the trend, it’s surely Calipari.
The formula has worked for the Hall of Famer in the past. His lone national championship squad in 2012 had multiple first-year players at the forefront, including future top draft picks Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The 2023-24 edition of the Wildcats has a similar composition.
Justin Edwards, D.J. Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Rob Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard make up Calipari’s latest group of talented frosh. Four of those five were McDonald’s All-Americans. It’ll be on Calipari to optimize the talent at his disposal. Kentucky showed a glimpse of what to expect this season at the GLOBL JAM tournament in early July, playing an up-tempo brand of basketball that emphasized sharing the rock and 3-point shooting.
Purdue’s response to Fairleigh Dickinson loss
Purdue found itself on the wrong side of history in March when it became just the second No. 1 seed to fall to a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter recently admitted that the devastating loss to Fairleigh Dickinson will stay with him forever. That’s got to be somewhat concerning for a program looking to overcome a series of underwhelming performances in the Big Dance.
Fortunately, the school returns most of its core pieces from last season’s 29-win squad, including reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey. The towering 7-foot-4 center was nearly unstoppable during the previous campaign. Purdue’s firmly in the national championship conversation as long as Edey is healthy.
But like their coach, the players must find a way to put last year’s disappointment behind them. That’s entirely possible – just look at what Virginia did, winning the national championship the year following its crushing defeat to No. 16 seed UMBC.
Duke’s and Kansas’ stacked rosters
Kansas and Duke are two of the biggest college basketball brands, and they also happen to sit at Nos. 1 and 2 in the AP Poll, respectively. Both bring back a trio of stars and have added serious talent.
The Jayhawks were already poised for a great year but needed a go-to scoring option. Bill Self picked up arguably the greatest transfer in modern college basketball history with former Michigan All-American Hunter Dickinson. His dominant low-post scoring needs to equate to more winning, but there’s no doubting the value of his addition.
Meanwhile, Duke lucked out with the surprise return of ACC Freshman of the Year Kyle Filipowski from the NBA draft process. Jon Scheyer will reintegrate him into an already solid core. The head coach will also turn to a handful of freshmen and unproven sophomores with fantastic recruiting pedigrees. If he can get a couple of them to play at a high level, there may not be a team with a higher ceiling in the sport.
What can UConn do as an encore?
It’s already a near-impossible task to follow up a national championship, but doing so after one of the most dominant runs in March Madness history takes things to a whole new level. Add in the fact that the Huskies lost arguably their three most important players to the NBA, and it’s very easy to count this program out in 2023-24.
A repeat will start with their three key returners. Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban both started last season and will have an increase in shot attempts. However, the player slated for the biggest rise is 7-foot-2 behemoth Donovan Clingan, who averaged an absurd 21.1 points, 17.1 rebounds, and 5.5 blocks per 40 minutes as a freshman off the bench. The big man could produce an All-American season, which the Huskies may need to get back to the promised land.
This is all before mentioning the new pieces. Stephon Castle may be the most heralded – the five-star recruit and potential lottery pick adds a new level of dynamic offensive scoring that Dan Hurley and Co. didn’t have last year. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer nailed 43.4% of his 166 threes last season and will look to replace Jordan Hawkins’ elite shooting.
Pac-12 looks to show out in potential final season
The well-documented exodus on the West Coast means this season could be the last go-around for the Pac-12. That’s done wonders for the conference’s members in college football – six Pac-12 teams rank in the AP Poll. Only two hoops squads are in the top 25 to begin the year, however.
Arizona is the clear favorite to win the league after two straight dominant campaigns under head coach Tommy Lloyd. High-profile North Carolina transfer Caleb Love joins a solid Wildcats core that could compete for a No. 1 seed if all breaks right. The other team receiving poll votes is USC, which has an elite backcourt of veteran Boogie Ellis and No. 1 recruit Isaiah Collier, with the potential of Bronny James adding to that tandem if he can return from a scary heart incident.
A couple other squads could easily join the Big Two. UCLA has been consistently great under Mick Cronin in recent years but has to replace four starters from last year’s squad. Colorado is another interesting group, led by some talented returners and flanked by five-star forward Cody Williams, brother of Oklahoma City Thunder starter Jalen Williams.
Potential breakout candidates
Nobody saw Edey going from playing 19 minutes a game as a sophomore to winning the National Player of the Year as a junior, but giant breakouts like his happen every season. Clingan seems like a front-runner for that type of leap given a similar role change as Edey, but other players are also on pace for a massive bump in production.
Arizona’s Kylan Boswell seems like a good choice at the guard spot after an above-average season off the Wildcats’ bench as the youngest player in college hoops. Now an 18-year-old sophomore, Boswell is slated to start at point guard and could be the steady driver of Arizona’s fast-paced attack. If he can maintain his strong shooting percentages and 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio with increased volume, he could make an All-Conference team at minimum.
On the wing, Miami’s Wooga Poplar could parlay his jump from little-used freshman to complementary starter as a sophomore and become a full-blown star as a junior. The Hurricanes lost their top two scorers from last season, and Jim Larranaga’s free-flowing offense suits Poplar and his 37.5% mark from beyond the arc very well. Don’t be surprised if Poplar makes his way into NBA draft talks by the end of the campaign.
Gonzaga welcoming life without Timme
It’s the start of a new era in Spokane, with longtime Gonzaga star Drew Timme finally graduating from the program. His list of accolades is nearly endless, including making three All-American teams, winning the WCC Player of the Year twice, and earning two spots on March Madness All-Region teams.
More importantly, Gonzaga was nearly unbeatable with Timme in tow, going an insane 121-13 in his four seasons on campus, winning 10 NCAA Tournament games, and finishing as the national runner-up in 2021. Despite the Bulldogs’ somewhat disappointing campaign last season, Timme put up a career-best 21.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game.
Coach Mark Few’s attempts to replace Timme’s production starts with Wyoming transfer Graham Ike, who starred in the Mountain West two seasons ago before sitting out last season with an injury. The team also upgraded at point guard with Creighton star Ryan Nembhard making the move west. The Bulldogs’ conference foes clearly don’t believe Gonzaga has done enough to replace Timme, though, with Saint Mary’s sitting atop the WCC preseason poll. Gonzaga hasn’t fallen from the top of the league’s podium since 2012.
Elite offenses vs. elite defenses
Aside from Kansas and Duke, some of the very best teams in the nation are built off either a fantastic offense or a stifling defense. While these teams are slotted slightly lower because of their possible struggles on one side of the ball, there’s no denying their dominance on the other.
On offense, Creighton and Baylor immediately stand out. The Bluejays bring back three exceptional starters from last season’s Elite Eight squad but swap out Nembhard with Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth, an elite offensive player with clear defensive limitations. Baylor is seeking to narrow the gap between its No. 2 offense and No. 107 defense last season but stocked up on guards once again this offseason, limiting its size down low.
Defensively, Tennessee and Houston should be among the nation’s best again after finishing Nos. 1 and 5 in defensive efficiency last season, respectively. Rick Barnes and the Volunteers have the country’s deepest wing and big rotation, with nearly every option both athletic and toolsy on defense. Kelvin Sampson’s aggressive style will once again be on display with a physical Cougars group.
Tom Izzo’s best chance at a second title
Michigan State’s Izzo is regarded as one of the best coaches in college hoops but has failed to win a national championship since his success in 2000. At 68 years old, the possibility of retirement is starting to creep up, but Izzo may have one of his best chances at title No. 2 this season.
Discussing the Spartans this season starts with their three-headed backcourt of Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard, and Jaden Akins. Walker was the team’s leading scorer last season, an elite shooter and all-around offensive threat. Hoggard led the squad in assists and finished sixth nationally in assist rate. As an athletic 3-and-D wing, Akins has a shot at a giant breakout after returning from the NBA draft process
That said, Michigan State only earned a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament with those three in tow. The upside comes from the nation’s No. 5 recruiting class, led by big man Xavier Booker, point guard Jeremy Fears, and hyper-athletic wing Coen Carr. If those three can successfully integrate with the existing core, there’s definitely Final Four upside in East Lansing.
