2024 Formula 1 predictions: Title winner, biggest surprises, and more

Biggest surprises ?

Nesci: This is born out of hope more than anything else, but there’s more variety on the podium this season, if not the top step. All the evidence suggests this is highly unlikely, of course – Red Bull, barring some kind of unforeseen disaster, should cruise to both titles once again and thoroughly own most race weekends. However, F1 desperately needs some eye-popping results sprinkled throughout 2024 after a monotonous 2023 campaign. Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren have all seemingly taken steps forward. At some point, the gap should begin to close as teams start diverting resources to 2025 and beyond. RB and Williams look ascendant heading into the season, too, while Fernando Alonso is capable of getting anything he drives onto the podium. With a record-breaking 24 races on the calendar, there’s more opportunity than ever for any number of variables to upset the apple cart.

Bradburn: I tip my hand with my drivers’ championship prediction above, but Oscar Piastri outperforms Lando Norris. McLaren started abysmally slow last year, and preseason testing indicates that won’t be the case this time around. That’s terrific news for Zak Brown, who’s looking to maintain good standing as CEO of the team after a stretch of mediocrity that’s deprived Norris of his first race win through six years and 104 entries. If that streak is prolonged much further, Norris may have to force his exit from McLaren despite signing a shiny new contract extension through 2025, paving the way for the promising sophomore to get the preferred strategy. And even if that doesn’t happen, Piastri might not need to be favored by his team to outperform Norris. The Aussie had arguably the best rookie season since Lewis Hamilton and, at times, looked sharper than Norris last year. McLaren’s invested a lot into Norris, but the view of the future needs to be clear.

Valente: The Daniel Ricciardo of old returns. The Australian didn’t get enough time in his brief return last season, but he puts together his best effort in years with a full offseason and RB’s performance jump after taking more Red Bull parts. The McLaren woes are proven to be reversible as the eight-time race winner looks back at home in Red Bull machinery and becomes a consistent points scorer in 2024. A podium appearance and Red Bull promotion for 2025 are in the cards, too.

Wallace: Williams continues to impress. First-time team principal James Vowles lifted the struggling English squad to seventh in the constructors’ championship last season, its highest finish in six years. This season, Williams rises further in midfield thanks to Vowles’ strong strategy history from his time at Mercedes and Alex Albon’s consistent stint with the team.

Wile: In his final season with Ferrari, Sainz finishes higher in the drivers’ championship than Leclerc for the first time since 2021. Sainz will have no shortage of motivation this season as he’s racing for a future seat and has a legitimate shot at being another team’s No. 1 option after years of fighting for preferential treatment with Leclerc. Sainz finished only six points behind his teammate in 2023 and likely would’ve placed higher than him had he not missed the Qatar GP due to a fuel leak that prevented him from starting the race. What better message for Sainz to show the rest of the teams what he has to offer than to beat Leclerc in the same car.

Biggest disappointments ?

Wallace: George Russell’s third season with Mercedes is as underwhelming as his second. Russell has the speed to succeed with the additional resources and opportunities Mercedes provides him as the team’s first driver with Hamilton’s looming departure, but he lacks the awareness. His approach isn’t enough for a top-five position in the drivers’, and Russell’s stint shows Mercedes’ lack of finesse without Hamilton.

Valente: There’s a reason why Alpine is sometimes referred to as the French Ferrari, and it’s not because of past success. Littered with poor decision-making, constant turnover, a rumored underpowered engine, and two solid but unspectacular drivers, Alpine’s mismanagement reaches a boiling point in 2024. With whispers already emerging that the French team could begin the season as a backmarker, it’s hard to trust that Alpine will figure it out. Instead, it finishes in eighth, its worst constructors’ result since 2016, as more drastic and impulsive decisions follow.

Nesci: Hamilton’s impending switch has inevitably led to questions about how forthcoming Mercedes and Ferrari will be with their departing drivers as the season progresses. In theory, Hamilton and Sainz being shunned in favor of Russell and Leclerc could create some bitterness and animosity within the two storied garages, leading to fireworks both on and off the track. In reality, and much to the dismay of Netflix executives, the season is rather … cordial. Mercedes, despite being caught off guard by the seven-time champion’s exit, gives him the respect he deserves all year, while Sainz doesn’t do anything too drastic to negatively impact his ability to secure a seat elsewhere for 2025. The drama we all crave is lacking.

Bradburn: As much as F1 fans are willing the opposite to happen, Daniel Ricciardo squanders his final chance. The Racing Bulls seem very fast in testing, which leads to high expectations. And with Sergio Perez’s seat at Red Bull potentially up for grabs, many see Ricciardo as the heir to reclaim a spot on the top team. The Aussie looked confident taking over for Nyck de Vries last year, ending up as high as seventh in Mexico but ultimately finishing outside the points in his other six races. Down the stretch, Yuki Tsunoda comfortably outperformed him, racking up 14 points at the final five circuits. If Ricciardo isn’t regularly beating Tsunoda, it’s lights out and away we go to NASCAR.

Wile: Despite Lawrence Stroll’s declaration that Aston Martin is set to join the big boys, the British manufacturer still isn’t ready to make that next step. Alonso was rejuvenated to start last season, landing podiums in six of the first eight races. But as the rest of the field began to catch up, he only had one top-five finish over the last nine. Alonso believes the AMR24 is an improvement over last season, though time will tell. If Aston really wants the take the next step, it needs much more out of Lance Stroll. He finished 10th in the drivers’ standings in 2023 and a disappointing 132 points behind Alonso, the second-biggest gap between teammates behind Verstappen and Perez.

Driver moves going into 2025 ?

Nesci: Hamilton’s stunning move to Ferrari sets off a huge chain reaction across the grid. Ahead of Audi’s introduction in 2026, Sainz, the odd man out at Maranello, joins Kick Sauber to replace Valtteri Bottas. The Finn heads back to Williams, where an open seat is waiting for him because Albon, after an impressive season, is given another opportunity as Verstappen’s teammate at Red Bull, relegating Perez to the sidelines. Mercedes makes the biggest splash of all, though, inking Fernando Alonso to a short-term deal in order to give teen phenom Kimi Antonelli some valuable time in F2 before he makes the jump up to the big seat alongside George Russell.

Bradburn: Red Bull poaches Norris. Let’s get nuts. It’s probably the most chaotic possible prediction for silly season, and frankly unthinkable given that the promising Brit just recently signed a multi-year extension to stay with McLaren. However, it’s very clear that Christian Horner is interested in liberating Norris. If his race-win drought goes on any longer, his patience might run too thin to remain with McLaren for an eighth mediocre year. At least at Red Bull, he’d have a shot to finish second until Max Verstappen has enough of winning.

Valente: Mercedes fills Lewis Hamilton’s champion-sized cockpit with the driver it believes will be a future world champion in Andrea Kimi Antonelli. While Antonelli is still only 17 years old, he’s arguably the sport’s biggest prodigy since Max Verstappen. Mercedes missed out on a chance to sign Verstappen due to not having an available seat to offer him. The Silver Arrows don’t make the same mistake twice. With Antonelli’s track history in previous junior series, he gets there with a competitive result in his debut Formula 2 season.

Wallace: Liam Lawson heads to Red Bull. After an impressive performance filling in for Ricciardo at RB last season, Helmut Marko takes a chance on the New Zealander and signs him to a two-year contract to be Red Bull’s second driver. Although he remains a reserve driver after being snubbed for a seat for the 2024 season, Red Bull takes a chance on Lawson’s youth and reliability after he gets laps in and Perez struggles.

Miscellaneous predictions ?

Bradburn: Verstappen pushes his race win percentage to No. 1 above Michael Schumacher and Hamilton. Here’s the current leaderboard:

Hamilton goes the entire year without a win, which is sadly a safe expectation at this point with Mercedes, dropping his win percentage to 28.93%. The defending champion could even secure his eighth victory and the record by Japan if he sweeps the first four races of the year (he needs eight wins this season for the record). It’s not even really a matter of if but when for yet another record chase by the all-time great.

Nesci: Gene Haas’ tune about not being interested in selling his F1 team changes following another dismal season spent toiling at the back of the field. Haas’ change of heart finally opens up the opportunity Michael Andretti has been waiting for. Instead of fighting a losing battle by trying to introduce an 11th squad to the grid, the American buys his way in and brings his storied name to F1 by revamping a team in turmoil following the surprising dismissal of Guenther Steiner, one of the most universally beloved personalities in the sport. F1 retains its American presence in the paddock – with a bigger brand, no less – the existing teams don’t have to share the pie any more than they already do, and Haas doesn’t have to deal with the enormous stress of owning a flailing outfit. Everybody wins.

Valente: Four teams win a race, with three teams winning multiple times. While Red Bull and Max Verstappen appear to be headed for another dominant season, the rest of the pack seems closer than last year. Ferrari and Mercedes are capable of victories this time around when Red Bull slips up. McLaren also snatches the top spot on the podium. It’s the first time since 2021 that four different teams celebrate victories.

Wallace: Sixth season’s the charm? Lando Norris has proven himself to be a worthy competitor who’s consistently fallen short of an elusive first win. After upgrades to the McLaren last season and midseason upward momentum, McLaren finally gets its first win since the 2021 Italian Grand Prix before the summer break. It’s not anomaly, either – both Norris and Oscar Piastri stand 1-2 atop the podium more than once, solidifying McLaren as a force in the drivers’ championship.